Strategic Advisory — Trans-Atlantic
Where geopolitical expertise meets investment insight — delivering concrete, actionable advice to multinationals and institutional investors navigating a fracturing world order.
Strategic investment advice must be thoughtful, informed and above all independent — named for the Declaration of Arbroath, signed in 1320 to declare independence from England.
The Challenge
A structural rupture — not a cycle — is reshaping the rules of global business. Three forces are creating continuous, compounding instability that demands a new strategic lens.
The collapse of the post-Cold War order and emergence of a multipolar world with contested rules, alliances and trade relationships. Only 6% of the world now lives in a full democracy; tariffs, export controls and sanctions are forcing massive reorganization of commercial relationships.
Record public debt, fiscal fragility and the end of the low-rate era create persistent financial instability across major economies. Banks are increasingly exposed to private credit and private equity risks as the AI capital expenditure boom expands.
Emerging technologies are reshaping competitive advantage, labor markets and national security — faster than most organizations can respond. AI is intensely geopolitical. Climate change will drive transformative investment in energy networks and resilience.
Why Most Firms Are Unprepared
The shift from globalization to fragmentation is permanent. Yet the tools most firms rely on were built for a different world.
Rules were predictable; governments moved slowly
Planning horizons extended; financing assumptions held
Supply chains optimized for efficiency, not resilience
Capital flows, supply chains and revenues shaped by policy
Fiscal fragility and rate volatility undermine long-range planning
Trade barriers, sanctions and export controls force structural reorganization
Our Experience
O'Sullivan and Smart bring complementary, hard-won experience across policy, markets and corporate strategy — the three pillars that must be integrated for sound decision-making today.
Our Services
A structured two-phase engagement designed to build immediate clarity and sustained resilience — from a focused diagnostic through to ongoing board-level advisory.
Geopolitics reshapes every business line — revenue, costs, financing, profit and governance. Start a conversation →
Our Team
Two senior advisors, one integrated perspective — combining European and American networks, policy depth and investment experience that no single firm or analyst can replicate.
The Arbroath Group brings together a rare trans-Atlantic pairing: a Paris-based economist with two decades in global wealth management, and a Boston-based former White House and Treasury official with deep investment markets experience.
Author, Economist & Investor
Mike brings twenty years of experience in global financial markets, most recently as Chief Investment Officer in the International Wealth Management Division of Credit Suisse, where he worked for twelve years. He now advises a number of asset management and fintech companies, including Moonfare.
He co-founded a digital wealth manager in the UK (Rosecut) and is a director of Unio Wealth Management in Ireland. He is also a senior advisor at WestExec Advisors and Chair of the Jane Goodall Legacy Foundation.
Mike is the author of The Levelling (PublicAffairs), which outlines the future of politics, economics, finance and geopolitics in the post-globalization era. He has recently co-authored L'Accord du Peuple (Calmann-Lévy) and made the BBC Radio 4 documentary Waking Up to World Debt.
Investor, Economist & Former Senior Policymaker
Christopher is the founder of the Arbroath Group and a principal at WestExec Advisors. From 2018 to 2023, he was Chief Global Strategist at Barings and founded the Barings Investment Institute, which focused on investment opportunities shaped by macroeconomic and political dynamics.
Before that, he served as Special Assistant to the President at the National Economic Council and National Security Council, advising on trade, investment and global economic issues. He also spent four years as Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, leading the response to the European financial crisis and U.S. engagement across Europe, Russia and Central Asia.
Christopher maintains an active public profile through regular columns in Barron's, Bloomberg Opinion and Foreign Policy, and frequent appearances on CNBC and Bloomberg TV. He has been a Senior Fellow at Carnegie Endowment, Harvard Kennedy School and Chatham House. He holds a Ph.D. from Columbia and a B.A. from Yale, and is a CFA charterholder.
In the Media
Featured
An overview of the Arbroath Group's approach to translating geopolitical disruption into actionable corporate and investment strategy.
Bloomberg Balance of Power · March 2026
CNBC China Connection · March 2026
Bloomberg Balance of Power · March 2026
Bloomberg Balance of Power · April 2025
BBC World News · April 2025
CNBC Power Lunch · February 2025
Publications & Research
O'Sullivan and Smart contribute regularly to leading global publications on geopolitics, economics and market strategy.
Track our latest views on political, economic and market developments — delivered directly to subscribers.
Learn more →Mike O'Sullivan's landmark work on what's next in politics, economics, finance and geopolitics in the post-globalization era. Published by PublicAffairs.
Michael O'SullivanChristopher Smart contributes regular analysis to leading financial and policy publications, and appears frequently on CNBC and Bloomberg TV.
Christopher SmartGet in Touch
Reactions to our published work and inquiries about advisory engagements are always welcome. We are happy to discuss how our trans-Atlantic perspective and integrated expertise might address your firm's specific challenges.
We are based in Boston and Paris, with networks across Washington, London, Brussels and major financial centers.
Strategic investment advice must be thoughtful, informed and above all independent. We take our name from the Declaration of Arbroath, signed by Scottish barons in this coastal town northeast of Edinburgh in 1320 to declare independence from England.